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Accuracy of Monsoon Forecast by Private Agency

Accuracy of Monsoon Forecast by Private Agency

Accuracy of Monsoon Forecast by Private Agency

Government is aware that a private agency has predicted seasonal rainfall of 102% of Long Period Average (LPA) for the 2015 southwest monsoon, whereas Earth System Science Organisation–India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has predicted monsoon 2015 seasonal rainfall of 88% of LPA ±4% model error. The cumulative rainfall received so far (1st June to 7th August 2015) is 93% of LPA. As about two more months are left for the present (2015) monsoon season (June to September) to complete, it will be early to say which forecast is accurate.

ESSO-IMD stands by its seasonal Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon 2015 issued in June 2015, which was 88% of LPA ±4% model error.

The cumulative rainfall situation for the period 1st June to 7th August, 2015 is 93%. The actual rainfall in July was 84% of LPA which is well within the forecast range issued by ESSO-IMD model and far off the target of the forecast issued by private agency. The rainfall during 2nd half for the country as a whole is likely to be 84% of LPA with a model error of ±8%. The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.

Government is closely and continuously monitoring the rainfall situation over the country. ESSO-IMD is issuing weather forecast/outlook with a lead period of 5 to 20 days. Gramin Krishi Seva Scheme (GKMS) is rendered on twice -weekly basis in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), institutions of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) etc. Further, crop specific advisories, generated in partnership with SAUs and ICAR, to help the farmers are issued and widely disseminated for planning possible contingency actions.

The GKMS of Earth System Science Organization -India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district/agro -climatic zone level twice weekly through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based wider dissemination media including short message service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response Service (IVRS) facilitating for appropriate field level actions.

Weekly rainfall forecast scenario followed by 15-day outlook is issued on every Thursday during the months of June-September for planning appropriate actions.

The Crop Weather Watch Group of MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE coordinates with ESSO-IMD, Central Water Commission, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutions and the State Governments to review on a weekly basis (on every Friday) the weather forecast scenario as it impacts on agriculture, level in Water Reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC), Progress of Sowing, Crop health including incidence of Pest Attacks and availability of inputs etc. The steps suggested under this process are available at www.agricoop. nic.in/weather.html.

This was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Science Shri Y.S. Chowdary in a written reply to a Rajya Sabha question today.

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